Russia and Ukraine's Flap at the Kerch Strait

Russia and Ukraine had agreed to share the Kerch Strait under a 2003 bilateral treaty. To give some background on the area, the Kerch Strait is a narrow waterway that connects the Sea of Azov to the north with the Black Sea to the south. Russia is on the east side of the strait, and Crimea the west. In 2014 Russia made a territorial claim to annex Crimea from Ukraine; the annexation is not currently recognized by Ukraine or the UN. Ukraine’s third largest port, Mariupol, is located on the high northern side of the Sea of Azov; so Russia taking control of the strait could greatly restrict Ukrainian commercial and military flows through the area. The Sea of Azov is bounded by Ukraine and Russia and is not governed by international maritime law.

On Sunday, Russia moved a tanker to block the straight, just hours before Russian coast guard vessels fired upon three Ukrainian navy ships, injuring six sailors. The Ukrainian boats and 24 sailors were seized and taken to Crimea. The straight was reopened on Monday. Russia alleges that Ukraine provoked Russia to act. Ukraine had previously lost 80% of its navy when Russia annexed Crimea in 2014; most of its ships were moored there when Russia seized them.

Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko made a request on Monday for martial law, primarily for areas bordering Russia. His first request for an order of 60 days was rejected by parliament in light of the upcoming elections on March 31. Under martial law civil activities like elections and freedom of the press can be restricted. Poroshenko's second proposal for martial law, for 30-days, was approved by parliament and is to take effect on Wednesday. President Poroshenko says that Ukraine has been facing a hybrid war from Russia for five years and that a looming Russian ground offensive revealed by intelligence reports could cause the escalation of an open war.

The international community, including European leaders and NATO, has condemned the activity and called for de-escalation. President Trump said he is “not happy about it” and did not like the situation "either way." Nikki Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the UN, tweeted “This is no way for a law-abiding civilized nation to act. Impeding Ukraine’s lawful transit through the Kerch Strait is a violation under international law. It is an arrogant act that the international community must condemn and will never accept.” Trump and Russia will both be at the G20 summit in Argentina later this week.

Summarized in part from the November 26, 2018 Los Angeles Times article "Ukraine imposes martial law as tensions with Russia soar"

Additional resources:
The Guardian "Kerch strait confrontation: what happened and why does it matter?"
The Economist "Explaining the naval clash between Russia and Ukraine"

Catch up with the latest events in the #KerchStrait and Ukraine with the Kyiv Post's live updates.https://t.co/yvwm13d2qI pic.twitter.com/cZYTk05vSV

— Kyiv Post (@KyivPost) November 26, 2018

AI R&D and AI-Driven Asymmetric Warfare (ADAW)

The world’s major powers are investing in AI research and development. China has a national AI strategy with a plan to invest $150 billion by 2030. The U.S. DoD invests $7.4 billion a year on unclassified R&D for AI and related fields. Russia, who is currently both light on human capital and financial resources, is currently investing $12.5 million a year.

With a lack of available resources Russia has adjusted its tactical approach to one of asymmetric warfare, where strategic influences and attacks have the potential to produce the greatest impact for their cost. For example, it is estimated that Russia spent about $1 million to influence the 2016 U.S. elections: $100,000 on Facebook ads, $4,700 on Google ads, $240,000 over two years on the IRA troll farm, $50,000 for an intelligence gathering trip by agents in 2014, plus costs for setting up 36,000 automated Twitter bot accounts, costs for creating divisive content, and costs related to the cyber-attacks on the Clinton campaign and the DNC.

The new threat in the information space is AI-driven asymmetric warfare (ADAW). As AI technology advances, the content of disinformation is changing from static (memes, ads, fake news stories) to dynamic (video, audio, "deep-fakes"). AI is also being researched for the purpose of understanding and manipulating human emotions and responses. The manipulative content is able to selectively reach targets via existing advanced content distribution networks.

Summarized from a November 15, 2018 Brookings Report "Weapons of the weak: Russia and AI-driven asymmetric warfare."

Additional resources:
Congressional Artificial Intelligence Caucus
CSIS "Promising Start, but Few Details in House AI Report"

“Digital information warfare is cost-effective and high-impact, making it the perfect weapon of a technologically and economically weak power,” @apolyakova writes on Russian disinformation campaigns https://t.co/8s4qNNpv7v pic.twitter.com/qG9e4hALlh

— Brookings (@BrookingsInst) November 26, 2018

Testimony on Sanctions Programs, Particularly for Iran, Russia, and North Korea

The Treasury's Assistant Secretary for Terrorist Financing Marshall Billingslea
testifies for a hearing on sanctions programs on September 26, 2018.

Marshall Billingslea testified for a Congressional hearing titled “Administration Goals for Major Sanctions Programs” on September 26, 2018.

His introduction by Congressman Barr details his long history of public service (at 37:35):

Today we welcome the testimony of Marshall Billingslea who was confirmed in June of 2017 as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorist Financing. In this role he helps oversee the Trump administration's efforts in administering economic sanctions programs globally.

Prior to joining Treasury Mr. Billingsley served as managing director for business intelligence services at Deloitte Advisory. He had previously held positions at the Department of Defense where he served as Deputy Under Secretary of the Navy and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict.

Mr. Billingsley has also worked as NATO Assistant Secretary-General for Defense Investment and as a staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is a recipient of the Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service. Assistant Secretary without objection your written statement will be made part of the record. The Honorable Marshall Billingslea you are now recognized for five minutes.

Jack Dorsey Testifies on Twitter's Response to Foreign Influence Operations

Twitter's Jack Dorsey testified at the September 5, 2018 hearing "Foreign Influence Operations’ Use of Social Media Platforms". Sheryl Sandberg of Facebook also testified. Google was invited but declined to attend. Here is a brief outline of Mr. Dorsey's opening statement:

I. Opening

• Twitter strives to be a global town square
• Must be a trusted and healthy place
• Abuse, malicious automation, and manipulation detract from it
• Never more important than during elections
• Share concern with committee about malicious foreign influence
• Hold themselves publicly accountable for progress

II. Russian influence in 2016 election, lessons learned

A. Retrospective review

• Twitter conducted a comprehensive review of 2016 election activity 
• Identified 50,258 accounts that were automated, linked to Russia, and tweeting election-related content, representing 0.016% of total accounts
• These accounts constituted 1.00% of election-related tweets; totaling 2.12 million tweets
• Twitter barred paid ads from two of the most active accounts generating paid content; affiliated with Russia Today (“RT”)
• Donating the $1.9 million that RT spent globally on advertising to academic research into election and civic engagement